Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.578836 2.751591 2.936067 3.148757 3.388533 3.652065 3.965818
2025-02-16 2.295153 2.524658 2.782995 3.098831 3.479553 3.930512 4.515945
2025-02-23 2.122932 2.384021 2.688820 3.077522 3.570282 4.189538 5.054113
2025-03-02 1.993290 2.273540 2.609933 3.053382 3.639014 4.412765 5.565355
2025-03-09 1.890111 2.183129 2.542930 3.030559 3.697583 4.619030 6.077122
2025-03-16 1.811621 2.115654 2.496560 3.025865 3.773835 4.852017 6.664204
2025-03-23 1.760709 2.078302 2.484104 3.062246 3.906839 5.180169 7.467793
2025-03-30 1.686573 2.005763 2.419309 3.019122 3.916962 5.317105 7.967908
2025-04-06 1.619644 1.938721 2.357159 2.973738 3.917070 5.434585 8.454876
2025-04-13 1.547867 1.861650 2.276837 2.895866 3.858701 5.445079 8.730439
2025-04-20 1.518889 1.840371 2.271719 2.926911 3.973328 5.766413 9.740240
2025-04-27 1.500202 1.831764 2.283173 2.982492 4.131829 6.189278 11.126751
2025-05-04 1.476896 1.816293 2.284742 3.024218 4.273846 6.611032 12.714981
2025-05-11 1.435455 1.773792 2.245081 2.998574 4.296544 6.800604 13.766460
2025-05-18 1.399262 1.737154 2.212075 2.980993 4.331249 7.020297 15.025392
2025-05-25 1.364188 1.700706 2.177537 2.958419 4.354143 7.218006 16.332766
2025-06-01 1.331637 1.666644 2.144958 2.936806 4.376362 7.417923 17.787380
2025-06-08 1.305521 1.640873 2.123637 2.932357 4.430412 7.701948 19.807827
2025-06-15 1.290673 1.630808 2.125551 2.966871 4.563436 8.206093 23.350116
2025-06-22 1.258355 1.594108 2.084976 2.925959 4.541430 8.311331 25.021348
2025-06-29 1.227172 1.558200 2.044366 2.882882 4.511420 8.391273 26.678830
2025-07-06 1.190182 1.512796 1.987574 2.808914 4.412057 8.267739 26.977151
2025-07-13 1.178838 1.505077 1.989443 2.838411 4.532087 8.781607 32.450295